World merchandise trade volume rose 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, while trade value increased 11%, according to the latest WTO and UNCTAD estimates.
Trade also grew 1.9% from the previous quarter in volume terms and 2% in value terms.
The performance is significant because the WTO had forecast in March that global merchandise trade would grow by just 1.9% for the whole of 2026 under its baseline scenario. The first-quarter result has therefore started the year considerably stronger than expected.
AI is becoming a major force in global trade
The strongest part of the global trade picture was technology.
The value of trade in AI-enabling goods increased by more than 40% year-on-year in the first quarter, while trade in office and telecommunications equipment jumped 44%.
Ores and other minerals rose 27%, while other machinery increased 9%.
The WTO said much of the strength in office and telecommunications equipment was linked to continuing demand for AI-enabling technologies, which increased about 42%.
The figures show how investment in AI infrastructure is increasingly influencing physical trade flows, from semiconductors and electrical equipment to machinery and minerals needed to build data centres and related infrastructure.
Middle East conflict has not yet fully hit the numbers
The resilience of global trade should not be interpreted as evidence that the Middle East conflict has had little economic impact.
The timing of the conflict is important.
The disruption began toward the end of the first quarter, meaning much of its effect on international trade will only appear in data from April onward.
The WTO expects the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz to be more fully reflected in second-quarter trade figures.
The early impact was already severe.
The volume of crude oil imports from the Middle East fell by roughly 45% year-on-year in March, while LNG imports declined 52% and fertilizer imports fell 26%.
Middle Eastern export and import volumes were down 9.7% and 11.9%, respectively, in the first quarter. Larger contractions are expected in the second quarter.
Asia is driving the expansion
According to the report, Asia emerged as the biggest engine of trade growth.
The region’s exports increased 20% in value terms in the first quarter, driven by precious metals, gold, copper, machinery, electrical machinery and ores.
In volume terms, Asian exports increased 12.9% year-on-year, while imports rose 14.6%.
China was an important contributor, but the WTO also highlighted strong export growth from Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Chinese Taipei.
Much of the growth reflects the movement of AI-enabling goods through Asian supply chains.
Africa is also seeing stronger trade value
Africa’s merchandise exports increased 14% in value terms in the first quarter, giving the continent the second-highest regional growth rate after Asia.
The increase was supported by precious metals and gold, copper, fertilizers and ores.
However, the picture was mixed. African exports of cocoa and fuels declined.
African imports also increased 15%, with vehicles, machinery and ships and boats among the major contributors.
This suggests that Africa is participating in the broader reshaping of global trade, although not all commodity exporters are benefiting equally.
The real test comes in the second quarter
The biggest question now is whether the AI boom can continue to offset the economic and trade damage caused by the Middle East conflict.
In March, the WTO estimated that sustained high energy prices could reduce its 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points. Continued strength in AI-related trade, on the other hand, could add 0.5 percentage points.
The WTO now expects larger contractions in Middle Eastern trade flows, alongside stronger growth in Asia and North America.
The next major assessment will come with the WTO’s updated trade forecast in October.
BuyerMetrics Insight
Global trade is proving more resilient than the Middle East conflict initially suggested, but the resilience is uneven.
AI investment is generating a powerful new wave of demand for technology, machinery, electrical equipment, minerals and other inputs. At the same time, the conflict is disrupting energy, fertilizer and shipping flows.
The result is a global trading system being re-routed rather than simply weakened.
For commodity-producing economies such as Nigeria, the critical question is what happens next: whether disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies creates new export opportunities for other producers, or whether higher energy, freight and input costs eventually overwhelm the benefits of stronger global demand.
The second quarter will provide a much clearer answer.
