Africa’s merchandise exports increased 14% year-on-year in value terms in Q1 2026, according to the latest WTO and UNCTAD trade data.
The increase made Africa the second-fastest-growing major region, behind Asia, where export value rose 20%.
The performance comes as global trade is being reshaped by two major forces: the rapid expansion of AI-related supply chains and disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East.
For Africa, the numbers point to a mixed but potentially important shift in the continent’s position in global trade.
Metals and minerals drive African exports
The strongest contributors to Africa’s export growth included precious metals and gold, copper, fertilizers and ores.
The trend reflects continued demand for raw materials used across industrial, energy and technology supply chains.
AI-related investment has also increased demand for electronic equipment, machinery and the minerals needed to support the expansion of data centres and other digital infrastructure.
Africa’s resource base therefore gives the continent an opportunity to benefit from the changing structure of global demand.
But the gains are not evenly distributed across commodities.
The WTO reported that cocoa and fuel exports declined during the quarter, showing that strong overall export growth does not necessarily translate into stronger performance across traditional African commodity exports.
Africa’s imports are growing too
The trade expansion is not limited to exports. African merchandise imports increased 15% year-on-year in value terms during the first quarter.
Vehicles, machinery and ships and boats were among the categories recording particularly strong increases.
This points to rising demand for productive and transport-related equipment across African markets, although higher import values can also reflect changes in commodity prices rather than larger physical volumes.
The combination of rising exports and imports suggests that Africa remains closely connected to the broader expansion in global goods trade.
The Middle East crisis could create another opening
The next phase could be even more significant for African commodity exporters.
The Middle East conflict has sharply disrupted regional trade flows, particularly in energy.
The WTO estimates that the volume of crude oil imports from the Middle East fell by roughly 45% year-on-year in March. LNG imports fell 52%, while fertilizer imports declined 26%.
The full impact was not captured in the first-quarter figures because the conflict began toward the end of the quarter.
The WTO expects Middle Eastern trade contractions to become larger in the second quarter.
It also expects exports from Africa, South America and other petroleum-producing regions to rebound as producers attempt to compensate for reduced output from the Middle East.
For African oil producers, this could create additional export opportunities if the disruption persists.
But volume tells a different story
The 14% increase in Africa’s export value should also be viewed carefully.
In volume terms, Africa’s exports fell 2.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026.
That means the rise in export value does not necessarily mean Africa shipped substantially more goods.
Prices, particularly for some metals and minerals, played an important role.
The WTO reported that prices for metals and minerals excluding gold and silver were 32% higher year-on-year in the first quarter.
This distinction matters for African commodity producers.
Higher export earnings can improve foreign exchange availability and government revenues, but sustained gains require stronger production volumes and greater value addition.
Africa’s next challenge is moving up the value chain
The global trade environment is creating opportunities for Africa, but much of the continent’s export strength remains concentrated in commodities and raw materials.
The AI boom provides a new test.
Demand is rising for machinery, electrical equipment, copper, ores and other inputs needed to build the infrastructure behind the technology sector.
Africa has many of these resources.
The bigger question is whether African economies can move beyond supplying raw materials and capture more value through processing, manufacturing and regional supply chains.
That would make the current export growth more durable and less dependent on commodity price cycles.
BuyerMetrics Insight
Africa’s 14% export growth is encouraging, but the bigger story is where global demand is moving.
The AI investment boom is increasing demand for technology, machinery, minerals and other industrial inputs, while the Middle East conflict is forcing buyers to rethink energy and commodity supply routes.
Africa has many of the resources the new trade environment requires. But opportunity alone will not increase Africa’s share of global trade.
The countries that can combine reliable production, competitive logistics, processing capacity and consistent export quality will be best positioned to capture the next wave of global demand.
For Nigeria, the immediate opportunity may be energy. The longer-term opportunity is much broader: turning Africa’s natural resource advantage into a stronger position in global supply chains.
