LAGOS, Nigeria – Brent crude is currently trading at $95 a barrel after a volatile Wednesday session that saw prices climb as high as $97.04 before retreating.
The return to volatility followed renewed cross attacks between the United States and Iran, raising fresh concerns about oil supplies from the Middle East. Brent had already gained 4.6% on Tuesday to settle at $94.65 a barrel, its highest close since July 24. WTI rose 5.2% to $90.22.
For the rest of the week, the possibility that Brent can break through $100 a barrel is slightly moderated by the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is not totally closed as well as a minor OPEC’s cushion.
BuyerMetrics Oil Price Forecast
| Trading Day | Brent Forecast | WTI Forecast | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Sept. 2 | $92.50-$97.50 | $88.50-$93.00 | Bullish/volatile |
| Thursday, Sept. 3 | $93.00-$98.00 | $89.00-$94.00 | Bullish |
| Friday, Sept. 4 | $94.00-$99.00 | $90.00-$95.00 | Bullish |
BuyerMetrics base-case Friday target is Brent trading at $96-$97 per barrel.
The forecast assumes that tensions remain elevated but there is no sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz Remains the Biggest Price Risk
The oil market is increasingly focused on the Strait of Hormuz. Reported by Reuters, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said 17 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait on Monday, the highest volume recorded since the reductions caused by the Iran war.
That figure is important because it shows that substantial oil is still moving through the waterway. A prolonged disruption could therefore create a much larger supply shock.
Reuters also reported that traders are already considering the possibility of Brent moving above $100 if the conflict escalates further.
For the rest of this week, any development affecting shipping through Hormuz is expected to produce an immediate price reaction.
U.S. Inventories Could Reinforce the Rally
The U.S. crude inventory report is another important near-term catalyst. The latest available EIA inventory data showed a 95,000-barrel increase in U.S. crude stocks for the week ended August 21, far below the 1.6 million-barrel increase expected by the market.
A fresh draw in the latest report would give the oil market another bullish signal, particularly when geopolitical risks are already pushing prices higher.
A larger-than-expected build, however, could temporarily take some pressure off prices.
OPEC+ Adds a Ceiling to the Rally
Supply fundamentals provide an important counterweight to the geopolitical premium.
Seven OPEC+ countries agreed to implement an additional 188,000 barrels per day production adjustment in September. The group is scheduled to meet again on September 6 to review market conditions.
That means traders will also be watching the weekend OPEC+ meeting for signals about future production.
If the group maintains its current approach, geopolitical concerns could remain the dominant short-term driver. Any indication of significantly higher output could limit the upside.
Three Possible Outcomes
Bull Case: Brent breaks $100
Probability: 30%
A further escalation involving Iran, the United States or shipping through Hormuz could push Brent above $100, with prices potentially reaching $105-$110 if physical supply disruptions become significant.
Base Case: Brent stays below $100
Probability: 55%
This is our preferred scenario.
Oil remains supported by geopolitical risk, but continued shipments through Hormuz prevent a major supply shock.
Expected Friday range is between $94-$99 per barrel
Bear Case: Brent falls toward $90
Probability: 15%
A meaningful de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, combined with evidence of comfortable oil supplies, could remove some of the risk premium.
That could send Brent back toward $88-$93.
BuyerMetrics Bottom Line
The oil market has entered the final part of the week with a bullish bias. Brent’s move toward $97 has brought the $100 psychological level within reach, but the next leg higher will depend heavily on whether the conflict creates an actual disruption to oil flows rather than simply increasing geopolitical risk.
For now, BuyerMetrics expects Brent to remain in the $94-$99 range through Friday, with $100 becoming the key upside trigger.
A sustained move above $100 would signal that the market is beginning to price a more serious supply disruption.
