Brent crude was trading around $102 per barrel on Thursday, after rising above the $100 mark earlier in the week for the first time since July. The benchmark has gained nearly 30% from its early-August lows as renewed fighting has disrupted oil flows through the Middle East.
The immediate outlook for next week will depend heavily on the extent Trump’s position on the conflict changes as the conflict has determined the global commodity’s price since it started.
Trump’s timeline is now an oil-market signal
Trump said this week that he expects the war with Iran to end after the November US midterm elections, while also warning Iran against further escalation.
He has also said that oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly before the conflict ends. That message is important for the oil market because it reduces expectations of a quick diplomatic resolution.
For traders, the implication is that the geopolitical risk premium in crude could remain in place through next week unless Washington signals a change in direction.
The latest escalation has also made the supply threat more immediate. Iran has attacked ships near key waterways, while US forces have targeted Iranian oil tankers. At the same time, Iran-aligned Houthi forces are increasing pressure around the Red Sea.
Brent forecast: $100 – #110 next week
BuyerMetrics expects Brent to trade within a $100–110 per barrel range next week, with an upward bias.
The base case is for prices to remain above $100 as long as the conflict continues without a credible diplomatic breakthrough.
A move toward $105 would be the first important test. If shipping attacks intensify or oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz deteriorate further, Brent could move toward $110.
The downside is also clear.
If Trump changes his tone and announces a credible diplomatic initiative, ceasefire effort or negotiation with Iran, there could be a swing. Brent could then fall back below $100.
That makes Trump’s next major statement on the conflict one of the market signals to watch next week.
The supply question remains critical
The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted. Reuters reported that only seven vessels transited the strait on Wednesday, which is about half the 10-day average, while oil flows remain well below pre-war levels.
This means the market is not only responding to the possibility of future disruption. It is already responding to weaker movement of oil through major regional shipping routes.
At the same time, China’s crude buying has strengthened in recent weeks. Continued Chinese demand could provide another source of support for prices if Middle East supply remains constrained.
Next-week outlook
Current Brent: $102/bbl
BuyerMetrics forecast: $100 – 110pb
Bias: Upward
Key resistance: $105 – $110pb
Key downside level: $100pb
Main driver: Trump’s position on the duration and direction of the Iran conflict
The biggest risk to the forecast is a diplomatic breakthrough. Without one, Trump’s expectation that the war could continue beyond the November elections suggests that the market may continue to price a prolonged supply risk.
So, Brent’s return above $100 is increasingly tied to expectations that the US-Iran conflict will remain unresolved. Trump’s indication that the war may continue until after the November elections therefore becomes an important oil-market signal. Unless his position shifts toward negotiations or de-escalation, Brent is likely to remain higher next week, with $105 – $110 the upside levels. A sustained move below $100 would require evidence that the conflict or its impact on oil shipping is beginning to ease.
