Nigeria’s inflation trajectory showed signs of renewed pressure in March 2026, as rising month-on-month price increases offset the apparent moderation in annual inflation.
Report released by NBS Thursday shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to 135.4 in March, up from 130.0 in February, while headline inflation edged higher to 15.38% from 15.06% in the previous month. Although significantly lower than the 27.35% recorded in March 2025, the latest figures suggest that the pace of price increases is accelerating again in real time.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose sharply to 4.18% in March, more than double February’s 2.01%, highlighting renewed cost pressures across the economy. The 12-month average inflation rate also increased to 20.05%, reinforcing the persistence of underlying inflationary trends.
Rural Inflation Surge Signals Supply Chain Strain
A widening gap between urban and rural inflation points to growing structural challenges within the economy.
Urban inflation stood at 14.64% year-on-year in March, compared to 17.22% in rural areas. The divergence was more pronounced on a monthly basis, with rural inflation surging to 6.73% from just 0.71% in February, while urban inflation rose more moderately to 3.16%.
The sharp increase in rural prices suggests mounting supply-side constraints, including rising logistics costs, distribution inefficiencies, and localized shortages, particularly outside major cities.
Food Prices Remain Elevated Despite Annual Decline
Food inflation presented a mixed picture. On a year-on-year basis, it slowed to 14.31%, down from 25.22% in March 2025, reflecting easing base effects. However, on a monthly basis, food prices remained elevated, rising by 4.17% in March.
Staple items such as yam, cassava, tomatoes, and potatoes continued to drive price increases, indicating that while extreme food price shocks may be moderating, cost pressures on households remain significant.
The average annual food inflation rate also declined to 18.21% from 36.02% a year earlier, offering some relief but not yet signaling full stabilization.
Core Inflation Rise Points to Broader Cost Pressures
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, rose to 16.21% year-on-year in March. While this represents a decline from 27.12% recorded in the same period last year, the monthly trend suggests renewed pressure.
On a month-on-month basis, core inflation jumped to 4.03% from 0.89% in February, indicating that price increases are becoming more widespread across services, transport, and non-food goods.
This trend suggests that inflationary pressures are increasingly embedded in the broader economy, rather than being driven solely by temporary supply shocks.
Regional Disparities Highlight Uneven Price Dynamics
Inflation trends varied significantly across states, underscoring the uneven nature of price movements nationwide.
On a year-on-year basis, Bayelsa, Sokoto, and Bauchi recorded the highest inflation rates, while Osun, Kano, and Kaduna reported the slowest increases. Month-on-month data showed even sharper contrasts, with Zamfara, Bauchi, and Sokoto experiencing the steepest rises, while Lagos, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers recorded relatively modest increases.
Related – 5 Deep Signals From Nigeria’s February 2026 Inflation Report Investors Should Not Ignore
The disparities reflect differences in economic activity, infrastructure, and security conditions, which continue to influence the cost of goods and services across regions.
Outlook: Inflation Remains Elevated and Uneven
Overall, the March data indicates that while annual inflation has moderated due to base effects, underlying price pressures remain strong.
The acceleration in monthly inflation, coupled with rising core prices and sharp increases in rural areas, suggests that inflation in Nigeria is becoming more persistent and structurally driven.
This points to a more complex economic environment in which price stability may take longer to achieve, with implications for consumer spending, business costs, and overall economic growth.
