Favorable harvest has instigated an upward review of the 2025/26 projected global total grain (wheat and coarse grains) output by 5mt (5%) over the previous year.
According to International Grains Council (IGC)’s Market Grain Report released November 20, Harvests have so far been better than expected, prompting upward projections in consecutive reports since August.
“The larger global harvest will more than compensate for the tightest opening stocks in ten seasons, boosting overall supply by 3%, to an all-time peak”, said IGC
The production forecast for total grains (wheat and coarse grains) is now at a record of 2,430m tons, including increases for wheat, maize and barley.
Though demand growth in feed and food use is expected to outpace last season and the five-year average, raising total global grains demand by 2% (year-on-year), end season stocks are expected to rise y/y, by 1m ton more (month-on-month) to 619m tons.
IGC said after marginal adjustments across a number of producers, global soybean output is projected at 426m tones, slightly lower year-on-year but still above average, with Brazil heading for a potential record. Consumption is set to hit a new peak, tightening stocks by about 5m tones, while trade is expected to rise 2% to 187m tones on strong Asian demand.
Related – Global Wheat Prices Remain Subdued On Anticipation Of Oversupply
World rice production in 2025/26 is forecast to edge up, supported by gains in major exporters. With ample supplies, consumption is seen growing 1%, lifting global reserves. Rice trade could increase 4% in 2026, driven by buyers in Asia and Africa.
The Council’s first formal outlook for dry beans shows steady production and use for 2025/26, influenced mainly by developments in India. Trade is set to ease slightly in 2026, though Chinese imports should continue trending upward. Overall pulses trade is projected to fall 8% in 2025 due to weaker demand for dry peas and lentils.
IGC Grain Market Report
The IGC GOI rose 4% month-on-month, driven mainly by stronger soybean prices, with wheat and maize also firmer.
Wheat prices increased 3% m/m, supported by gains in the US and Canada, though still 2% below last year.
Maize strengthened 3% m/m amid solid demand and export bottlenecks.
Rice fell 1% m/m to an eight-year low, pressured by weak export activity and seasonal factors.
Soybeans led the index, jumping 7% to a near 18-month high, boosted by expectations of renewed Chinese buying.
