Nigeria’s trade sector contributed 17.89% to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026, underscoring its continued position as one of the largest pillars of the economy despite slowing quarterly activity and mounting macroeconomic pressures.
According to the latest GDP report released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sector’s contribution was slightly lower than the 18.21% recorded in Q1 2025 but higher than the 16.84% posted in Q4 2025.
The latest figures reinforce the strategic importance of trade to Nigeria’s non-oil economy at a time when businesses are grappling with inflation, weaker naira, rising logistics costs, and weaker consumer purchasing power.
Trade Sector Records Modest Real Growth
The NBS data showed that the trade sector recorded real year-on-year growth of 2.08% in Q1 2026, compared with 1.78% in the corresponding period of 2025 and 2.00% in Q4 2025.
However, quarter-on-quarter growth declined sharply to negative 14.85%, indicating a slowdown in commercial activity compared with the stronger trading momentum typically recorded during the final quarter of the year.
The bureau stated:
“Trade’s year-on-year growth stood at 2.08% in the first quarter of 2026, which was 0.29 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in the previous year.”
In nominal terms, the sector expanded by 38.15% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 9.13% growth recorded in Q1 2025 and the 17.05% posted in Q4 2025.
Inflation Continues to Drive Nominal Expansion
The sharp rise in nominal growth suggests that higher prices across the economy continue to inflate commercial transaction values even as real trading activity remains relatively moderate.
Trade contributed 18.20% to nominal GDP in Q1 2026, compared with 15.52% in Q1 2025 and 19.10% in the preceding quarter.
Analysts say elevated operating costs, currency depreciation, and softer household demand continue to pressure Nigeria’s commercial ecosystem despite stronger headline revenue figures.
Nigeria’s broader economy grew by 3.89% year-on-year in real terms during Q1 2026, while aggregate nominal GDP at basic prices increased to N110.79 trillion from N94.05 trillion recorded a year earlier.
The trade sector remains one of the country’s largest employers and a major driver of wholesale distribution, retail commerce, transportation activity, and supply-chain operations nationwide.
Imports Rise as Export Performance Weakens
The GDP figures come amid shifting external trade conditions.
Related – Nigeria GDP Grows 3.89% In Q1 2026 As Services Sector Drives Expansion – NBS
Nigeria recorded a trade surplus of N1.71 trillion in Q4 2025, although export earnings weakened during the period.
According to previous trade statistics:
- Total merchandise trade declined 1.07% year-on-year
- Exports fell 5.25% to N18.96 trillion
- Imports rose 3.98% year-on-year to N17.25 trillion
- Exports accounted for 52.36% of total trade
The increase in imports alongside declining exports highlights continued dependence on foreign goods and softer external demand conditions despite relatively stable domestic commercial activity.
BuyerMetrics Bottom Line
Nigeria’s trade sector remains one of the economy’s most critical growth engines, but the latest figures show that inflation-driven nominal expansion is masking weaker underlying market momentum.
While year-on-year growth improved modestly in Q1 2026, the sharp quarterly contraction suggests that businesses and consumers remain under pressure from high costs, currency instability, and fragile purchasing power.
Unless consumer demand strengthens and export growth recovers, Nigeria’s trade sector could face slower real expansion in the coming quarters despite strong nominal performance.
