Global soybean prices could face further pressure in the coming months as production prospects strengthen across major exporting countries, particularly Brazil and Argentina.
Data on Trading Economics shows Soybean futures declined from 1,303.0 US cents per bushel on October 6 to 1,219.6 cents on November 2, representing a 6.4% decline, according to Trading Economics data.
The downward movement comes as expectations of increased global supply coincide with currency-driven export competition and uncertainty over demand from major importers, particularly China.
Brazil’s Currency Weakness Adds Export Pressure
Brazil’s weakening currency is improving the competitiveness of its soybean and soybean meal exports in international markets.
Following the October 25 presidential election, the Brazilian real depreciated sharply against the US dollar, making dollar-denominated agricultural exports more attractive to international buyers while supporting local currency returns for exporters.
The impact was evident in soybean meal prices. FOB Paranaguá quotations for December shipment fell by $14.22 per metric ton to $384.92 on October 26, marking their steepest daily decline since April.
The weaker real could encourage additional Brazilian export sales, increasing competition for US soybean suppliers and putting further pressure on international prices.
Brazil Projects 181.6 Million Tons of Production
Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts soybean production of 181.6 million tons for the 2026/27 season, representing a 0.7% increase from the previous season.
The projection reflects an expected expansion in planted area, although weather conditions remain a major production risk.
Brazil’s dominance in global trade also strengthens its influence on prices. The country reportedly supplied approximately 75% of China’s soybean imports during the first nine months of 2026.
If production meets expectations, increased export availability could reinforce downward pressure on global soybean prices.
Argentina’s Crop Outlook Adds to Supply Expectations
Argentina is also expected to record substantial soybean production in 2026/27.
The USDA forecasts production at 50 million tons, while its Foreign Agricultural Service office in Buenos Aires projects 52.5 million tons. The Rosario Grains Exchange has adopted a more conservative estimate of 47.8 million tons.
Argentina’s planted area is projected to increase to approximately 17.1 million hectares, supported by production economics and expected weather conditions.
The USDA FAS also projects soybean crushing at 44.8 million tons, reflecting the country’s continued importance in the global soybean meal and oil markets.
However, improved corn profitability could divert some acreage away from soybeans, while rainfall patterns associated with the developing El Niño weather phenomenon could influence final yields.
US Production Also Influences Price Direction
The United States is another source of supply pressure. The USDA projects its 2026/27 soybean harvest at approximately 4.56 billion bushels, equivalent to 124.1 million tons.
Higher production expectations, alongside expanding South American supplies, could limit the potential for a sustained recovery in soybean futures.
However, Chinese import demand, weather disruptions and stronger demand for soybean meal and oil could provide price support.
BuyerMetrics Market Watch
The global soybean outlook currently leans towards further price pressure, supported by expanding production prospects in Brazil, Argentina and the United States.
However, the extent of any decline will depend on whether actual harvests meet forecasts and whether Chinese import demand and soybean processing activity can absorb the additional supply.
Weather conditions across South America remain a key variable for the 2026/27 season.
BuyerMetrics Market Perspective
In the October Commodity Supply Risk Watch, BuyerMetrics classified soybeans as Moderate Risk, citing comfortable US supply and expectations of another large Brazilian harvest. However, the latest 6.4% price decline reinforces the supply-driven pressure identified in that assessment. The key uncertainty remains whether strong crushing and biofuel demand, alongside South American weather risks, will absorb the additional supply and limit further price declines.
